All posts tagged: economy

“Risk happens slowly…then all at once.”

2023 Q2 Market Commentary…

Approximately 50% of the NASDAQ 100 Index is concentrated in just seven stocks – Meta, Apple, Google, Microsoft, Amazon, NVidia, and Tesla. These seven stocks had a solid quarter in performance terms, yet only Apple stock is trading anywhere near all-time highs set back in the fall of 2021. Perhaps, these seven stocks were viewed by investors as a “safe haven” amidst a broader stock market that does not look much healthier than it did in all of 2022.

Tens of thousands of employees were let go by these seven companies and others in the first quarter of 2023. Job cuts can provide a boost to the company stock price, but it’s a strategy that only helps the bottom line, not the top line. It’s the top line (gross sales and revenue) that matters most, and the next wave of quarterly earnings this spring could paint a dismal picture across many companies and sectors. Nevertheless, for at least the first quarter, tech stocks gave the market some relief. (See Q1 2023 performance chart below)

Quarter 1, 2023 Performance Chart

Future Bright“Risk happens slowly…then all at once.”
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Endure Volatility for Future Rewards!

2022 Q3 Market Commentary…

There are a lot of shoes dropping now on the U.S. economy that we have been forecasting in previous newsletters. Inflation is running hot. Economic growth, as measured by GDP, is slowing. Interest rates are climbing. Supply chain bottlenecks still exist. Gas prices remain elevated. Housing demand is cooling. Residential rental rates are climbing. Consumer credit is at an all-time high. Consumer confidence is weakening. You get the point. The list is long.

When markets are under extreme duress, the one question we all really want answered is “How much lower will the stock and bond markets go before we bottom out?” While we await the answer (which only ever reveals itself in hindsight), we are forced to grapple with the prospect that markets could get worse before they get better. To further complicate matters, we get brief rallies in markets – called “bear market rallies”- that play with our psyches and create more confusion about market direction.

In the second quarter, economic conditions turned on a dime for the worse. There is no sugarcoating it. The stock market showed it. The bond market showed it. In fact, the first half of 2022 was the worst performing first half of a year since 1970. Here are the 2022 first half performance numbers through June 30:

Future BrightEndure Volatility for Future Rewards!
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