Q2 2022 Commentary…

As expected, it was a very choppy first quarter for the stock market. As we turned the calendar over to 2022, the market gave us that stomach-churning feeling you get when you realize you are at the apex of the rollercoaster climb and now see what’s in front of you. From January 1, it was a swift ride down to a low point in early March before climbing about halfway back up by the end of March.

All of the same economic headwinds from the second half of 2021 have carried over into 2022 with a couple of new ones to boot. Rising gas and food prices, supply chain backlogs, increasing mortgage rates, and slowing economic growth have continued to stymie some of the excitement investors had previously held for the “Post-COVID re-opening” economy. The major differences between 2022 and the last half of 2021 is that some of the largest mega-cap growth stocks began to show cracks in their armor. When heavyweight stocks fare poorly, the index performance usually reflects it. That’s been the case so far in 2022.

Q1 2022 Commentary…

Happy New Year! It’s only fitting that our quarterly newsletter would be affected by supply chain issues. If you didn’t notice the difference, we can only credit the capabilities of today’s laser printer technology. Unfortunately, ordering official letterhead in late November did not allow for a lengthy enough window to receive a fresh stock by January 1.

2021 was a strange year in so many respects. Here’s a reminder of some oddities we experienced…
• American workers were incentivized to not return to work
• COVID variants ran amok
• Inflation reached its highest level in 40 years (CNBC.com)
• 2/3 of stocks that make up the S&P 500 Index hit 52-week lows while the S&P 500 index set all-time highs (Leon Tuey, Financial Post)
• 93% of companies on the S&P 500 saw their shares slide 10 percent or more at some point in 2021 (Taylor Telford/Rachel Siegel – Washington Post 12/31/21)
• Crude oil prices roared back into the mid-80’s in October due to reduced supply (Yahoo Finance – historical prices)
• Krispy Kreme became publicly traded again (let’s call this one a blessing and a curse)
• Dogecoin advanced 3,400%, and most people don’t even know what it is

2021 Q3 Commentary…

In last quarter’s commentary, we addressed inflation as an increasing headwind on the stock market. Just how much inflation is in the offing and whether it is transitory (i.e. – temporary and manageable) has been the hot public debate in financial circles during the second quarter. Anecdotally, I’ve heard from many of you about the rising cost of 2 x 4’s, tires, used cars, gasoline, and even Burger King chicken sandwiches. I paid $4.09 for an order of large fries at McDonald’s in Moorhead this week! Perhaps the only real takeaway there for me is that by making better diet choices, I could help stave off inflation.

Has inflation fully kicked-in yet? That’s what investors want to know. The uncertainty makes for a Jekyll and Hyde market. Admittedly, there have been days this quarter in which the markets have made our reflationary investment thesis (aka – Silo 2) look foolish and other days it has made us look genius, but we must stick to our guns on the data we have in hand. The alternative is to become like the dog who chases its tail, and that doesn’t end well when investing.

Q1 2021 Commentary…
2020 was a year full of alarming statistics. One you maybe didn’t hear was that over 10 million new brokerage accounts were opened by first-time investors in just the United States alone! This influx was the result of three things: stimulus checks, a pandemic-induced market selloff, and the elimination of trading commissions at brokerage firms such as Schwab, TD Ameritrade, and Robinhood.

2020 created a perfect storm to attract more individuals to invest, which is a great thing for market efficiency and liquidity. The dangerous part of this perfect storm is that many younger, new investors have not yet experienced a significant market crash, as most of this new money came into the stock market during its recovery. Significant gains were created by and for investors who were willing to take on the risk of buying assets some maybe didn’t even fully understand. New money was piling into SPACs, Bitcoin, LIDAR stocks, to name a few. (If these terms don’t ring a bell, it’s okay. We got you covered.)

In client accounts that could afford to take the risk, we benefited from the irrational exuberance of many of these first-time investors. In fact, we rode some of the waves they created. However, we know the tide can go out just as fast as it comes in, and as asset managers, we have to have a game plan in place for when markets aren’t turning up all roses. Discipline is often what marks the difference between casual, DIY investors and those of us who do this for a living in times like these.

Hello friends, Social distancing affords a person a lot of time to reflect on life, doesn’t it? This time spent at home with family has been a great blessing. Life’s pace has slowed down, and that’s the solace I didn’t know I needed. I hope you’ve found your own moments of solace amidst this abnormal reality, as well.