2021 Q3 Commentary…
In last quarter’s commentary, we addressed inflation as an increasing headwind on the stock market. Just how much inflation is in the offing and whether it is transitory (i.e. – temporary and manageable) has been the hot public debate in financial circles during the second quarter. Anecdotally, I’ve heard from many of you about the rising cost of 2 x 4’s, tires, used cars, gasoline, and even Burger King chicken sandwiches. I paid $4.09 for an order of large fries at McDonald’s in Moorhead this week! Perhaps the only real takeaway there for me is that by making better diet choices, I could help stave off inflation.
Has inflation fully kicked-in yet? That’s what investors want to know. The uncertainty makes for a Jekyll and Hyde market. Admittedly, there have been days this quarter in which the markets have made our reflationary investment thesis (aka – Silo 2) look foolish and other days it has made us look genius, but we must stick to our guns on the data we have in hand. The alternative is to become like the dog who chases its tail, and that doesn’t end well when investing.
Two byproducts of an economic recovery are higher prices and higher wages. Since the economy has not fully recovered to pre-COVID levels, it’s very possible that there is more inflationary pressure coming, despite the Fed downplaying the concern. Economic growth, as measured by GDP, must gather enough strength in an inflationary cycle for the economy to absorb these higher costs. Any slowdown in GDP into an inflationary cycle puts us at risk for stagflation, and that can be a stiff headwind for asset values.
As of this print, the rate of change on both GDP and inflation data show that both are still accelerating. We read that as “two thumbs up” in our silo investing model, and we continue to stick with reflationary investment positions. The Federal Reserve has the unenviable job of trying to thread the needle on the timing of future rate hikes. If they hike rates too soon, they risk prematurely slowing the recovery. If they hike too late, they risk inflation running hotter than the economy can handle. The recent stock market performance reflects this quandary as there is not much conviction in the upward trend, and the market’s incremental gains have come on the backs of too few companies to call it another leg up in the rally.
Volume also matters. It’s been a thinly traded market in the second quarter, which further speaks to the lack of conviction. We think the coming inflation and GDP data will provide more certainty of a determinable trend in the 3rd quarter, and we will position assets accordingly. Our hope is that growth in GDP can match or exceed the strength of the inflationary forces so that we can continue to play offense in this market.