2021 Q3 Commentary…
In last quarter’s commentary, we addressed inflation as an increasing headwind on the stock market. Just how much inflation is in the offing and whether it is transitory (i.e. – temporary and manageable) has been the hot public debate in financial circles during the second quarter. Anecdotally, I’ve heard from many of you about the rising cost of 2 x 4’s, tires, used cars, gasoline, and even Burger King chicken sandwiches. I paid $4.09 for an order of large fries at McDonald’s in Moorhead this week! Perhaps the only real takeaway there for me is that by making better diet choices, I could help stave off inflation.
Has inflation fully kicked-in yet? That’s what investors want to know. The uncertainty makes for a Jekyll and Hyde market. Admittedly, there have been days this quarter in which the markets have made our reflationary investment thesis (aka – Silo 2) look foolish and other days it has made us look genius, but we must stick to our guns on the data we have in hand. The alternative is to become like the dog who chases its tail, and that doesn’t end well when investing.
